US copper imports set to surge amid tariff concerns, Goldman Sachs says
Published: 13:11 12 Mar 2025 EDT
US copper imports could rise by up to 100% in the coming months as traders rush to capitalize on higher domestic prices ahead of potential tariffs, Goldman Sachs said in a note earlier this week.
The bank cited a widening price gap between US and global copper prices, triggered by the Trump administration's investigation into copper imports for national security reasons.
The US copper price for May 2025 contracts is currently trading at $756 per metric ton above the global benchmark, the London Metal Exchange (LME) price, as the investigation looms.
While no tariffs have been officially proposed, Goldman Sachs anticipates a 25% tariff on copper imports by year-end, which could lead to a surge in imports and a significant rise in US copper inventories.
The bank forecasts a 200,000 to 300,000-ton increase in US copper inventories by the end of the third quarter, pushing inventories from the current 95,000 tons to between 300,000 and 400,000 tons. This would account for 45% to 60% of global copper inventories, leaving other regions with minimal stockpiles, Goldman Sachs noted.
CME’s May copper contracts were last week trading $800 per ton higher than their LME counterparts.
Goldman Sachs also predicted a 180,000-ton global copper market deficit in 2025 due to strong demand from electrification, China’s economic stimulus, and slower mine supply growth. It expects the LME three-month price to average $10,200 per ton in the third quarter of 2024.
