The morning catch up: ASX to rise as tech and real estate rally offsets CBA drag

The ASX is set to rise this morning, with ASX 200 futures up 18pts (+0.21%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index ended virtually flat on Tuesday, closing just 1 point lower at 8,541 (-0.01%), after an early rally faded amid thin holiday trading and end-of-financial-year positioning. The index touched an intraday high of 8,576 before giving back gains.

Gains in Utilities (+0.92%), Real Estate (+0.79%) and Consumer Staples (+0.45%) were countered by declines in Industrials (-0.60%), Telecommunications (-0.26%) and Materials (-0.16%).

Tech stocks outperformed, tracking a fresh record high by the NASDAQ. DroneShield surged 12.28% to A$2.56, ZIP climbed 4.56% to A$3.21, and Life360 advanced 4.38% to A$33.45. Appen also rose 3.57% to A$1.16.

Real estate stocks rebounded following last week’s retreat, with Scentre up 2.81% to A$3.66 and GPT Group gaining 2.07% to A$4.94. Meanwhile, Commonwealth Bank of Australia fell 1.17% to A$182.58, with funds rotating into peers—ANZ added 2.50% to A$29.89 and NAB rose 0.86% to A$39.70.

Retail sales data is due today, the final major input ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s July 8, meeting. A 0.4% month-on-month rise is expected, with interest rate markets pricing in a 92% chance of a July cut.

Wall Street pulls back as tech stocks retreat ahead of labour data

US equities fell overnight, with the S&P 500 easing and the NASDAQ snapping a six-day winning streak amid a rotation into the Dow Jones following stronger job market data and the Senate’s passage of President Donald Trump's “OBBB” tax bill.

Tesla dropped 5.34% to US$300.71 on renewed tensions between Trump and Elon Musk over EV subsidies. Nvidia lost 2.97% to US$153.30. Conversely, healthcare names outperformed—UnitedHealth rose 4.5% and Amgen added 4%.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank remains in “wait and see” mode but left the door open for a July rate cut, stating that "a majority of the committee feels it would be appropriate to begin easing rates" across the remaining four meetings this year.

Attention turns to Thursday's US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, which is expected to heavily influence the Fed's next move. Markets are currently pricing in just 5 basis points of cuts for July and 29 basis points by September.

Europe mixed as trade uncertainty and weak industrials weigh on sentiment

European equity markets were mixed. The continent-wide FTSEurofirst 300 fell 0.2%, led by losses in industrials (-1.7%) and banks (-1.3%). Deutsche Bank dropped 3.6%. In contrast, the UK’s FTSE 100 edged 0.3% higher.

At the European Central Bank (ECB) Forum in Sintra, global central bank leaders including Powell, Christine Lagarde and Kazuo Ueda maintained a cautious tone, citing uncertainty and the need for more data before adjusting policy.

Commodities mostly higher; Australian dollar edges lower

Global oil prices advanced ahead of the OPEC+ output decision. Brent crude rose 0.6% to US$67.11 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate added 0.5% to US$65.45.

Gold futures jumped US$42.10 or 1.3% to US$3,349.80 an ounce, driven by safe-haven demand after the US Senate passed the OBBB tax bill. Spot gold traded near US$3,338.

Base metals rose, with copper gaining 0.4% on improving Chinese demand prospects. Aluminium added 0.1%. In contrast, iron ore slipped 1.1% to US$93.41 per tonne amid weak Chinese factory data.

In currency markets, the Australian dollar traded near US65.80 cents, after dipping from US65.89. The euro hovered near US$1.1800, while the Japanese yen weakened to JPY143.40.