Nasdaq leads market rally as calm returns to oil and global risk

4:16pm: Wall Street ends in the green

Wall Street kicked off the week on a high note Monday, with all four major indexes climbing solidly and investors brushing off some of the anxiety that had weighed on markets in recent sessions.

The Nasdaq led the charge, rallying 1.5% to end the day at 19,701, buoyed by a resurgence in tech stocks.

The Dow Jones rose 317 points to close at 42,515, up 0.8%, while the S&P 500 gained 56 points, or 0.9%, to finish at 6,033. Small-caps also joined the party, with the Russell 2000 climbing 1% to 2,122.

A mid-session boost came after The Wall Street Journal reported that Iran may be willing to resume nuclear negotiations—a move seen as a potential off-ramp to escalating conflict with Israel. The headline helped lift market sentiment and push stocks to session highs.

The market had been nervously watching the Middle East after a weekend of heightened tensions. But with signs that the conflict may remain contained—and crude oil prices giving up earlier gains—investors found room to wade back into riskier assets. Brent crude settled just under $73 a barrel, while WTI dipped below $72.

Meanwhile, attention is also turning to trade headlines, as the US holds talks with the EU and Canada during the G7 summit. The clock is ticking toward Trump’s July 9 deadline, when the 90-day pause on sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs is set to expire.

Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve takes center stage this week. Markets widely expect policymakers to keep rates unchanged at Wednesday’s meeting. Despite pressure from Trump to cut rates, the current mix of geopolitical uncertainty and resilient market performance may limit the Fed’s appetite for immediate action.

For now, though, a calmer tone in both oil and equity markets is giving investors some breathing room to start the week.

3:40pm: Proactive news headlines

• Giyani Metals Corp (TSX-V:EMM, OTC:CATPF) received a non-binding letter of interest from the U.S. EXIM Bank for up to $225 million in long-term debt financing for its K.Hill manganese project in Botswana.
• Coinsilium Group Limited (AQSE:COIN, OTCQB:CINGF) surged 91% after disclosing that its Bitcoin treasury vehicle Forza had acquired £510,000 worth of Bitcoin.
• Power Metallic Mines Inc (TSX-V:PNPN, OTCQB:PNPNF) secured the exploration license for its Jabal Baudan project in Saudi Arabia, becoming one of the few foreign firms to win a mining concession in the Kingdom.
• The Smarter Web Company rose 25%, extending a post-IPO rally that has boosted its market capitalization from £3.7 million to approximately £429 million.
• Sona Nanotech Inc (CSE:SONA, OTCQB:SNANF) signed a clinical trial agreement with a clinic in Chile to begin early feasibility testing of its Targeted Hyperthermia Therapy for advanced melanoma.
• Santacruz Silver Mining Ltd (TSX-V:SCZ, OTC:SZSMF) formally appointed Andrés Bedregal as CFO after serving in the role on an interim basis and helping renegotiate key asset acquisition terms.
• Nostra Terra Oil and Gas Company PLC (AIM:NTOG, OTC:NTOGF) was initiated with a ‘Buy’ rating and a 0.06p target price by SP Angel, which sees over 300% upside based on its self-funded growth strategy.
• Seeing Machines Ltd (AIM:SEE, OTC:SEEMF) secured a $1.2 million deal to supply driver-monitoring systems for test vehicles used by a North American autonomous driving company.
• Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd (AIM:FOG, TSX-V:FO) jumped 23% after reporting the highest-ever 30-day gas production rate from the Beetaloo Sub-basin project in Australia.

2:27pm: Stocks on the move

CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV) was downgraded to Neutral by Bank of America on valuation concerns, with analysts noting the stock’s 145% post-earnings rally has priced in near-term upside.

Circle Internet Financial (NYSE:CRCL) surged 18.6% on Monday, extending its post-IPO rally amid intense investor demand that saw the offering oversubscribed 25 times.

Roku Inc (NASDAQ:ROKU) jumped nearly 10% after announcing a partnership with Amazon Ads to make Amazon’s DSP the primary platform for addressable connected TV ad buying.

Giyani Metals Corp (TSX-V:EMM, OTC:CATPF) received a non-binding letter of interest from the U.S. EXIM Bank for up to $225 million in debt financing for its K.Hill manganese project in Botswana.

Coinsilium Group Limited (AQSE:COIN, OTCQB:CINGF) soared 91% after revealing its Bitcoin treasury vehicle, Forza, had purchased over £500,000 worth of Bitcoin.

Intel Corp (NASDAQ:INTC) will begin significant layoffs at its manufacturing sites in mid-July as part of a strategic overhaul under new CEO Lip-Bu Tan.

Power Metallic Mines Inc (TSX-V:PNPN, OTCQB:PNPNF) secured an exploration license for its Jabal Baudan project in Saudi Arabia, becoming one of the few foreign firms to win a mining concession in the Kingdom.

Sarepta Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:SRPT) plunged nearly 45% after reporting a second patient death tied to its gene therapy Elevidys, prompting a safety review and revised treatment protocol.

Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd (AIM:FOG, TSX-V:FO) rose 23% after reporting a record 30-day initial gas production rate from its Beetaloo Sub-basin project in Australia.

1:25pm: Stocks resilient despite Israel-Iran escalation

U.S. stocks have shown resilience in the face of renewed geopolitical tensions after Israel launched airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities last week, with markets appearing to absorb the initial shock, according to LPL Financial.

The S&P 500 fell about 1.1% on Friday following the strikes—broadly in line with historical averages for market reactions to geopolitical events. Over the weekend, Israel and Iran exchanged missile fire, with Israel reportedly destroying parts of Iran’s air defense system while several Iranian missiles hit Israeli residential areas.

“History tells us that markets tend to recover from geopolitical shocks relatively quickly,” said Jeff Buchbinder, Chief Equity Strategist at LPL Financial. “While each situation is unique, the average stock market drawdown around these events is about 4.6%, with a recovery usually taking around 40 days.”

Buchbinder emphasized that economic conditions tend to matter more than geopolitics in determining the market’s trajectory. Notable exceptions, such as the First Gulf War and 9/11, were compounded by underlying economic fragility.

Despite the immediate uncertainty, Buchbinder pointed to several factors supporting markets today, including U.S. energy independence and signs the conflict may remain contained. “For those surprised that the U.S. stock market is holding up well today, we would argue it’s a combination of several factors,” he said, citing potential for regime change in Iran and limited disruption to oil production.

1:00pm: Investor confidence returns

Investors have quickly regained their appetite for risk despite continued geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, according to Chris Beauchamp, Chief Market Analyst at IG.

“Friday’s outbreak of volatility has given way to a rebound in risk appetite, as investors breathe a sigh of relief that the Middle East conflict now underway remains contained,” Beauchamp said in a note on Monday.

He cautioned, however, that the market’s response could be overly optimistic. “This might seem like excessive optimism, given the potential for the war to spiral into a new and much more dangerous phase,” he added.

Beauchamp pointed to reports that Tehran may be seeking to de-escalate the conflict, suggesting Israel’s military response has had a significant effect.

12:18pm: Roku shares jump

Roku Inc (NASDAQ:ROKU) shares jumped almost 10% after the TV streaming platform announced a new partnership with Amazon Ads, which will create the largest authenticated connected TV (CTV) footprint in the US.  

The integration makes Amazon’s demand-side platform (DSP) Roku’s primary platform for addressable CTV ad buying.

The deal provides logged-in reach to roughly 80 million US households, more than 80% of the country’s CTV market, according to ComScore.

11:33am: Iran hints at de-escalation

Stocks rose to session highs on Monday following a Wall Street Journal report that Iran is signaling a desire to de-escalate tensions with Israel.

Tehran has reportedly indicated it is open to resuming nuclear talks—on the condition that the US stays out of the conflict—and is using Arab intermediaries to send messages to both the US and Israel aimed at ending hostilities.

The Nasdaq led the way with a 1.5% gain, while the S&P followed up 1.1% and the Dow Jones around 0.9% higher.

10:57am: China holds back rare earths

Recent US-China trade truce talks have left unresolved the critical issue of export restrictions on specialized rare earth materials essential for American military hardware, according to a Reuters report.   

Beijing is yet to commit to exporting certain rare earth magnets needed by US suppliers for fighter jets and missile systems, sources told the publication.

Further, China is reportedly tying future shipments to the US allowing it to access AI semiconductors, which were curbed due to concerns over their potential military applications.

Analysts at Wedbush believe that if Reuters is correct, this news could potentially open the door to some resumption of AI chip supply to China.

“We are uncertain what AI chips China is looking for (H20, B200, etc.) and whether the US will negotiate a resumption of any supply that is now banned,” they wrote.

10:26am: Week ahead

Wall Street enters a pivotal week with investors watching developments on multiple fronts — from the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran to a Federal Reserve policy decision that could shape the interest rate outlook for the rest of the year.

Traders will have to navigate a tense geopolitical backdrop after Israel launched fresh strikes on military targets in Tehran over the weekend, while Iran responded with additional missile attacks. The threat of broader regional escalation has kept investors on edge, even as market reaction has been relatively contained to start the week.

Despite the renewed hostilities, oil and gold prices have remained subdued. West Texas Intermediate crude was trading around $72 a barrel on Monday, while gold edged lower.

Against this uncertain backdrop, investors will turn their attention to the Federal Reserve’s policy decision on Wednesday. While the central bank is widely expected to leave its benchmark rate unchanged, the updated Summary of Economic Projections and Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference will be closely scrutinized for clues on the timing and extent of future rate cuts.

Read more here.

9.55am: Dow gains 400 points at open

The Dow Jones has opened the week with a 400-plus points gain, up 1%, with the S&P 500 also rising 1% and the Nasdaq jumping 1.2%. 

Despite fighting continuing between Israel and Iran, "it appears that market participants are less concerned about the possibility of the violence spreading throughout the region than they were last week," says market analyst David Morrison at Trade Nation. 

"It appears that most of the airstrikes and missiles have avoided the most significant parts of Iran’s energy infrastructure. But there are fears that this could change.

"In addition, Iran has threatened to disrupt, or even shut down, the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20% of global oil is transported. But some analysts think that this is unlikely, given that this is an important route for Iranian oil to China, its major customer." 

Oil prices are down almost 4% now, with WTI at $70.2 barrel. 

7.45am: S&P called higher as markets calm over Israel-Iran fighting

Wall Street stocks were called higher at the start of the week, while oil and gold prices fell as markets revised their views on the potential fallout from the Israel-Iran conflict, which continued to rumble over the weekend. 

Futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were up 0.5% ahead of Monday's opening bell, with Dow Jones futures up 0.4%.

Last week closed with worries about the Middle East fighting sending the S&P tumbling 1.1%, the Nasdaq 1.3% lower and the Dow down 1.8%.

Prices of WTI crude and gold, which had both spiked on Friday, were heading lower. WTI was down 1.3% to $72.1 a barrel and gold pulled back 0.4% to $3,418 an ounce. 

On the Middle East fighting, the US aircraft carrier Nimitz was reported by newswires to be heading from the South China Sea toward the Middle East.

Macro strategist Jim Reid at Deutsche Bank observed that both Israel and Iran have traded retaliatory blows but "have so far avoided the most extreme escalatory steps", including Iran not aiming for US facilities.

Reuters also reported that Donald Trump had discouraged Israel from trying to kill Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, when an opportunity presented itself.

However, diplomacy is "on a knife-edge in the region," Reid said. 

US influence could be key, said market analyst Kathleen Brooks at XTB, with President Trump having also said that the two sides could find a resolution, but they need to fight it out first.

"The prospect of US involvement in this conflict used to spook markets, however, now there is a chance that Trump could have a holistic influence."

Only a major escalation in the conflict might lead to another large upswing in oil and gold prices, she said. "Financial markets are very good at absorbing geopolitical risk, and Opec+’s supply boost is also helping to cushion the blow."

EU leaders are scheduled to meet to discuss the conflict this Tuesday, and this week’s G7 meeting is likely to be dominated by the Middle East situation.

In company news, energy was also in the headlines, with Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX, ETR:CHV) selling stakes in US offshore leases to French giant TotalEnergies.